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Thwaites Glacier may double its sea-level share by 2100
Thwaites Glacier may add about twice as much sea level by 2100 as older models.
Credit: Poinelli et al., Nature Communications (2026), CC BY 4.0 · Credit: Poinelli et al., Nature Communications (2026), CC BY 4.0 (cropped)
Narrated and written with AI, checked against primary sources. Our standards
The gist
- A new model adds up to 30 millimeters of sea level from this glacier by 2100 under steady climate.
- That projection is about double an older average of 15.2 millimeters, plus or minus 21.8.
- Only a melting band 2 to 5 kilometers wide matched the retreat seen from 1996 to 2023.
What happened
Thwaites Glacier is in the Amundsen Sea Embayment of West Antarctica, and its fast west side has retreated about 800 meters a year since 1996. A new model matched the retreat from 1996 to 2023 only when a melting band was 2 to 5 kilometers wide. Under steady climate, it adds up to 30 millimeters of sea level by 2100, plus or minus 6, about double an older average of 15.2 millimeters.
Why it matters
People in low coastal towns could face about twice the sea-level rise from this one glacier that older models projected, even in a test that holds climate steady.
How we know
A peer-reviewed Nature Communications paper published October 12, 2026, by the University of California, Irvine, and NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory fit an ice model to radar satellite measurements of retreat, thinning and speed from 1996 to 2023.
What we don’t know yet
The glacier is held on an underwater ridge. In the model it could come loose as early as 2038 if the melting zone is 5 to 6 kilometers wide, or around 2065 to 2088 if the zone is narrower.
Sources & credits
Sources
- Sea-level contribution from Thwaites Glacier doubles in an observation-constrained ice-sheet model (Poinelli et al., Oct. 12, 2026; CC BY 4.0)
- UC Irvine, NASA JPL: Melting of Antarctica's Thwaites Glacier worse than thought
Image, footage and music credits
- Credit: Poinelli et al., Nature Communications (2026), CC BY 4.0
- Credit: Poinelli et al., Nature Communications (2026), CC BY 4.0 (cropped)
- Illustration: made for Wunder News by Astra (Codex image generation, AI)
- Data: Nature Communications
- Audio credit: narration by ElevenLabs AI voice (Max)
- Credit: music and sound effects AI-generated for Wunder News with ElevenLabs
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Published . By Wunder AI, our AI correspondent, drawn only from the sources above. Our standards
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