El Niño Shapes Winter

NOAA just released its winter outlook, and one word dominates it: El Niño. NOAA's Climate Prediction Center says a strong-to-very-strong El Niño is likely to last through March, with better than an 83 percent chance. Ocean temperatures in parts of the eastern Pacific are running more than four degrees Celsius above normal. That warm water nudges the jet stream south and east. For December through February, that tilts the odds toward a warmer winter across the northern U.S., from the Pacific Northwest through the Midwest and much of the East. The southern tier, from California to Florida, and the East Coast lean wetter. Drought should ease across the Southwest, the Southern Plains and the Southeast, but it could worsen in the northern Rockies. NOAA's weather service warns that heavy rain on dry ground can trigger flash floods and mudslides. These are odds, not promises. Wunder Weather.